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The weather in Mexico City (CDMX) and the State of Mexico (Edomex) will be marked by the possibility of rain, wind gusts, and cold mornings during the weekend from Friday, October 23, to Monday, October 26, 2026, according to the forecast from the National Meteorological Service (SMN).
Conditions will change as the days progress: isolated rains are expected in the capital and showers in the State of Mexico for Sunday, while intervals of showers are expected in both entities on Monday.
In the Valley of Mexico, the general forecast includes rain due to the interaction of low-pressure channels with moisture coming from the Pacific Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea. In addition, the mountainous areas of the State of Mexico could record minimum temperatures of between 0 and 5 degrees Celsius during the early mornings of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
What will the weather be like in CDMX and Edomex from October 23 to 26?
Friday, October 23: the State of Mexico will have intervals of showers, with accumulations of 5 to 25 millimeters. For Mexico City, the rainfall forecast by entity does not include precipitation in its specific category for that day, although the general report contemplates the possibility of showers in the Valley of Mexico. Wind gusts of 30 to 50 kilometers per hour are expected in both entities.
Saturday, October 24: Edomex will have isolated rains, from 0.1 to 5 millimeters. Mexico City does not appear on the list of entities with precipitation for this day. In the State of Mexico, wind gusts of 30 to 50 kilometers per hour are forecast. The mountainous areas of the State of Mexico could record minimum temperatures of 0 to 5 degrees during the early Sunday morning.
Sunday, October 25: isolated rains are expected in CDMX and intervals of showers in the State of Mexico, with accumulations of 5 to 25 millimeters. Both entities will have wind gusts of 30 to 50 kilometers per hour. In the mountainous areas of Edomex, the thermometer could drop to between 0 and 5 degrees during the early Monday morning.
Monday, October 26: both Mexico City and the State of Mexico will have intervals of showers, from 5 to 25 millimeters, and wind gusts of 30 to 50 kilometers per hour. The mountainous areas of the State of Mexico could record minimum temperatures of between 0 and 5 degrees during the early Tuesday morning.
Which states will have heavy rains from Friday to Monday?
The SMN forecast includes precipitation of varying intensity in a large part of the national territory. The most significant accumulations will be concentrated in the north and west, as well as coastal regions of the Pacific.
Friday, October 23
Heavy rains with very strong downpours, from 50 to 75 millimeters, are forecast in the center and south of Chihuahua.
There will be showers with strong downpours, from 25 to 50 millimeters, in the southeast of Sonora; north and west of Durango; north and center of Sinaloa; southwest of Tamaulipas; west and southwest of Jalisco; Colima; center and southwest of Michoacán, and the coast of Guerrero.
Intervals of showers are expected in Baja California, Baja California Sur, Nayarit, San Luis Potosí, Nuevo León, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, the State of Mexico, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo.
Coahuila, Tlaxcala, and Morelos will have isolated rains.
Saturday, October 24
Chihuahua will have heavy rains with very strong downpours, from 50 to 75 millimeters, in the east and southeast.
Showers with strong downpours, from 25 to 50 millimeters, are forecast in the north, center, and west of Durango; north, center, and south of Sinaloa; north of Nayarit; west and southwest of Jalisco; Colima; coast of Michoacán, and southwest of Guerrero.
Sonora, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosí, Veracruz, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo will have intervals of showers.
Baja California, Baja California Sur, Guanajuato, Tlaxcala, Morelos, and the State of Mexico will have isolated rains.
Sunday, October 25
Showers with strong downpours, from 25 to 50 millimeters, are expected in the north of Coahuila; southeast of Nuevo León; center, south, and southwest of Tamaulipas; east of San Luis Potosí; east of Puebla; north and center of Veracruz; north of Oaxaca; south of Jalisco; Colima; coast of Michoacán, and coast of Guerrero.
Sinaloa, Nayarit, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, the State of Mexico, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo will have intervals of showers.
Isolated rains are forecast in Baja California Sur, Mexico City, Morelos, Tlaxcala, Tabasco, and Campeche.
Monday, October 26
The forecast includes showers with strong downpours, from 25 to 50 millimeters, in the south of Chihuahua; west of Durango; south of Sinaloa; Nayarit; south of Jalisco; Colima; coast of Michoacán, and southwest of Guerrero.
Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, San Luis Potosí, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Querétaro, Hidalgo, the State of Mexico, Mexico City, Morelos, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo will have intervals of showers.
Baja California Sur, Tlaxcala, and Tabasco will record isolated rains.
What weather phenomena will cause the rain and cold?
The SMN forecast identifies four main systems that will influence Mexico's meteorological conditions during these days.
1. Cold front number 3. This system will be located in the north of the country and will remain stationary during the forecast period. Its interaction with other atmospheric systems will favor showers, heavy rains, and wind gusts, especially in the north.
2. Cyclonic circulation, troughs, and jet streams. The cyclonic circulation in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough over the southwestern United States, and the polar and subtropical jet streams will contribute to precipitation and wind in the north of the national territory. Other low-pressure channels and a trough over the Yucatán Peninsula will favor rain in the center, east, west, and southeast.
3. Tropical cyclone Vance. The system will slowly approach the southern coasts of Michoacán and Colima. Its circulation will favor heavy rain in Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, in addition to intense wind gusts and high waves on the coasts of those states.
4. Moisture from the Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea. The inflow of moisture will fuel conditions for showers and rain in different regions, including the Valley of Mexico and the Yucatán Peninsula.
The cold air mass that pushed cold front number 2 will maintain a cold to cool environment during the mornings and nights of Friday. However, the SMN expects its thermal characteristics to modify starting Saturday and to stop affecting the national territory.
In which states will it be coldest?
Minimum temperatures of between -5 and 0 degrees Celsius are expected in mountainous areas of Baja California during the early Saturday morning. By early Sunday morning, these conditions will extend to mountainous areas of Baja California and Durango.
During the early Monday morning, minimums of -5 to 0 degrees are forecast in mountainous areas of Baja California, Chihuahua, and Durango. For early Tuesday morning, the same range is expected in mountainous areas of Baja California, Chihuahua, and Durango.
Temperatures of between 0 and 5 degrees are also expected in mountainous areas of Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Michoacán, the State of Mexico, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz, and Oaxaca, with variations depending on the day.
Additionally, there is a probability of sleet in the Sierra de San Pedro Mártir, Baja California, during Friday night and early Saturday morning.
Where will there be strong winds and high waves?
Wind and waves will be other relevant effects during the weekend. On Friday, gusts of 50 to 70 kilometers per hour are expected on the isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec, Oaxaca, and waves of 2 to 3 meters on the coasts of Guerrero and that region of Oaxaca.
On Saturday, the coasts of Michoacán and Guerrero could record waves of 2 to 4 meters. By Sunday, waves of 4 to 5 meters are expected on those coasts, while they could reach 3 to 4 meters in Colima.
On Monday, waves of 4 to 5 meters will continue on the coasts of Colima, Jalisco, and Michoacán, and 3 to 4 meters in Guerrero. Wind gusts of 60 to 80 kilometers per hour are also forecast in coastal areas of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, and the southwest of Guerrero.
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