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Americans will head to the polls in two weeks, on November 3rd, for midterm elections that are shaping up to be a referendum on the administration of President Donald Trump, and which will determine whether Republicans maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
Polls paint a favorable scenario for the opposition Democrats, which has led Trump to throw himself into the campaign with daily rallies this week in decisive states.
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According to an analysis by the portal Decision Desk based on polling averages, Democrats have a 77% chance of winning the House of Representatives and a 56% chance of regaining control of the Senate.
The House of Representatives
The Lower House will renew all 435 of its seats for a two-year legislative term. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority of 219 seats against 214 for the Democrats, so the opposition needs a net gain of three to take control.
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Democrats clearly lead in voting intention for this chamber, with 50.9% support compared to 42.3% for the Republicans.
In the last week, the Cook Political Report has revised its forecasts in eleven districts in favor of the Democrats, many of them in traditionally Republican states, and the opposition could exceed 230 seats.
Republicans are facing particular difficulties in the Midwest states that voted for Trump in 2024, but where dissatisfaction with his economic management, high gasoline prices, and the war in Iran has grown.
It is common for the president's party to lose control of the Lower House in midterm elections, something that already happened to Trump during his first term and which was then leveraged by the Democrats to initiate impeachment proceedings against him.
The Senate
On November 3rd, 35 of the 100 Senate seats will also be up for election, where Republicans have a majority of 53 senators against the 47 of the Democratic bloc.
The opposition faces a somewhat more difficult scenario: it needs to snatch four seats from the Republicans and keep its own to reach a majority in the Upper House, which has the power to confirm Supreme Court justices among its competencies.
According to polls, the race is tight in seven states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. All the seats in contention in those states are currently held by Republicans, except for the one in Michigan, which is held by a Democrat.
One of the races that has drawn the most attention is Texas, considered a Republican stronghold for years, where Democrat James Talarico is now leading Trump ally Ken Paxton by 2.2 points, according to RealClearPolitics.
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, from the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party, leads Republican Mike Rogers by 2.6 points, while in Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson is ahead of the current Republican senator, Susan Collins, by 1.6 points.
Gubernatorial elections
In addition, 36 states will elect their governors in races where Democrats are favorites in 20 and could win a majority of the country's governorships for the first time since 2010.
Among the projected victories are those of Democrats Xavier Becerra in California and Kathy Hochul in New York, while Republicans Greg Abbott and Byron Donalds lead the preferences in Texas and Florida, respectively.
The race is very tight, however, in four states: Georgia, Nevada, and Ohio, currently in Republican hands, and Wisconsin, governed by a Democrat.
In Alaska, the Cook Political Report names Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins as the favorite, whose victory would represent his party's first gubernatorial election win in that state since 1994.
Trump's popularity
In this context, Trump is undertaking a rally tour this week through Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan to try to mobilize his base at a time of low popularity.
According to a poll published Sunday by The Washington Post and ABC News, the president's approval rating has fallen to 33%, while 66% of Americans believe he uses the Presidency to enrich himself.
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