Canada has analyzed what it would do in the face of US military action: Carney's warning about Trump

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged that his government has examined the possibility, which he considers extremely remote, of US military action against Canada following repeated statements by the US President, Donald Trump, about the possibility of turning the country into the "51st state."

In an interview published Wednesday night by The New York Times, Carney described that possibility as an "extreme tail risk," a term used in risk management for events with very low probability but potentially very serious consequences.

"I think in these positions one has the responsibility to analyze extreme risks," Carney declared. "It is simply risk management. It is not the base-case scenario, but it would be irresponsible not to prepare," he added.

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The Prime Minister avoided explaining what that analysis consisted of.

The statements coincide with reports published in January according to which the Canadian Armed Forces had developed, for the first time in approximately a century, a theoretical model on how to respond to a hypothetical US invasion.

That exercise, which Canadian officials stressed did not constitute an operational plan, envisioned that Canada, given the enormous US military superiority, could lose its main land and maritime positions in a matter of days and would subsequently have to resort to irregular warfare.

The model included ambushes, sabotage, drone attacks, and actions by small military units or armed civilians, inspired by tactics used in Afghanistan.

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The hypothesis arose after Trump repeatedly suggested turning Canada into the "51st state" of the United States, although the officials cited at the time considered an invasion unlikely and highlighted that cooperation between the armies of both countries remained positive.

Carney's statements come in the midst of a sharp deterioration in relations between Canada and the United States in decades.

Following the suspension of trade negotiations in August, Washington imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian products worth 27.6 billion Canadian dollars, and Ottawa responded on September 8 with levies of between 15% and 50% on an equivalent volume of US imports.

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Despite the deterioration of the bilateral relationship, Carney assured The New York Times that he speaks "frequently" with Trump and that both have spoken on several occasions since trade negotiations were suspended last month.

"From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense that we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues," affirmed Carney, who insisted that there is still a possibility of reaching a mutually beneficial trade agreement.

At the same time, Ottawa is accelerating its strategy to reduce its strategic dependence on the United States, from the Starlink satellite system to the planned review of the F-35 fighter purchase, while seeking to diversify its economic, technological, and defense relations with Europe and other partners.

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