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Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard anticipated this Sunday that rules of origin will replace tariffs as one of the main axes of international trade discussion in 2027, given the rise of protectionism and efforts by the United States to relocate production from Asia to North America.
"Next year, the international debate will surely no longer be about tariffs; it will be about rules of origin," Ebrard stated during the plenary session of the ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) in the Chamber of Deputies.
The official explained that global trade is undergoing a transformation from a system based mainly on free trade, quality, and price to another in which the country where each product is manufactured is becoming increasingly important.
"We are moving from one system to another," said Ebrard, who argued that the new trade policy promoted by the United States seeks to recover part of the manufacturing moved over decades to Asian countries and reduce its trade deficit.
In that scenario, he explained, rules of origin will determine which products can access certain markets and under what conditions, depending on the percentage of their components manufactured in a country or region.
The warning comes as Mexico and the United States are negotiating changes specifically related to rules of origin within the review process of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Since the first bilateral rounds this year, both countries have addressed the tightening of rules for industrial goods, particularly in the automotive sector, in addition to mechanisms to reduce dependence on inputs from countries outside North America.
In July, Mexico, the United States, and Canada agreed to keep the USMCA in effect at least until 2036, but to conduct annual reviews, while Washington and Mexico continue to negotiate issues such as automobiles, steel and aluminum, economic security, and the strengthening of regional supply chains.
Ebrard considered that the change in the trade model also represents an opportunity for Mexico, given the U.S. objective of reducing its dependence on Asia in sectors such as electronics and semiconductors.
"If the United States says: 'I no longer want to bring so many electronics from Asia. I no longer want to bring semiconductors,' then the question is: where are you going to make it?" he proposed.
According to the Secretary, the new model involves relocating productive activities to North America and moving part of those chains to Mexico, which would allow the country to increase the complexity of its economy.
Ebrard linked this strategy to the relaunch of the "Made in Mexico" seal, of which he stated 3,614 certificates have been issued, considering that certifying origin will cease to be merely a promotional tool and will become a strategic condition for market access.
"If you cannot certify where it is made, you will not be able to enter the market," he warned.
[Publicidad]