The recent earthquake in Panama released a significant amount of energy accumulated over approximately a century in the Azuero-Soná fault system, and although earthquakes are unpredictable, another one of the same magnitude would not be expected in the area, the director of the Geosciences Institute of the University of Panama, Néstor Luque, told EFE on Monday.

“This fault system in the Azuero-Soná area has released quite a bit of energy that had been building up in the hundred-year range. I would not expect another one to occur in that area with that magnitude,” the expert explained.

The Geosciences Institute of the University of Panama placed the magnitude of that Friday earthquake, which had its epicenter in the Azuero Peninsula in the southwest of the country, at 7.5, while the United States Geological Survey (USGS) raised it to 7.7.

The specialist compared the recent seismic movement with the one that occurred in 1913, with a magnitude of 6.9, and pointed out that "both events are in a similar range of energy released by this fault system."

However, the geologist stressed that seismic activity “cannot be anticipated with certainty,” so it is not possible to conclusively rule out that new earthquakes of this magnitude could occur in the near future.

He explained that Panama is geologically constituted by what is known as a microplate called the Panama Block and is surrounded by four main tectonic plates: the Caribbean Plate to the north, the Cocos Plate, the Nazca Plate, and the South American Plate.

Regarding Panama's preparation for these natural events, the expert pointed out that, like others, it "is continuous in all countries, preparing for events that can cause disasters."

Seismic risk in the capital

Luque also warned that several geological faults located around Panama City—where, although the earthquake was strongly felt, no serious damage occurred—have the potential to generate earthquakes with a magnitude close to 7, according to studies conducted during the Panama Canal expansion.

“An event of that intensity (in the city) could affect structures built more than thirty or forty years ago, when earthquake-resistant structural design standards were beginning to be implemented in the country,” the specialist warned.

Given this scenario, he specified that the Government has arranged for the review of infrastructures considered vital, including schools, health centers, stadiums, and bridges, to evaluate their response to seismic movements and determine if they require structural reinforcements.

“The inspections seek to establish the conditions of these facilities and the interventions necessary to reduce their vulnerability to future seismic events,” he pointed out.

Because although the powerful earthquake has not left any fatalities and only about thirty minor injuries, it did cause damage to more than two thousand infrastructures, mainly on the Azuero Peninsula, which is characterized by small towns with an aging population dependent on agriculture and livestock.

According to the latest official report, the earthquake caused damage to more than 1,280 residences, 619 school centers, more than 60 government buildings, 44 churches, 24 health centers, 11 hotels, and a dozen roads, pathways, and bridges throughout the country.

Decreasing aftershocks

Luque noted that by Monday morning, around 350 aftershocks had been recorded, an activity that continues, although the movements are becoming increasingly spaced out and their magnitudes have decreased progressively.

"Aftershocks can last for days and even one or two months, until they reach a level where the ground vibrations are imperceptible to people and can only be detected by instruments,” commented the expert.

Luque detailed that during the first ten hours following the main event, aftershocks with magnitudes close to 6 were recorded, while subsequently the movements shifted to the range of 5 and then decreased to magnitudes between 3 and 4.

He added that the aftershocks occur because “the fault system is readjusting itself” and as long as this continues, the number of movements will decrease.

Regarding the lesson this earthquake leaves behind, Luque made a request: “There is no longer any doubt that Panama is a tectonically active country. Panama is exposed to large earthquakes; we must continue conducting studies on the active faults in Panama and the types of soil.”

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