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Two years after the fracturing of the Sinaloa Cartel unleashed an internal war in northwestern Mexico, the country's criminal map is undergoing a transformation: blows from authorities against their structures, the consolidation of rivals, and pressure from the United States are pushing cartels to exercise less visible violence.
The change reveals a paradox: the dispute between Los Chapitos and La Mayiza since September 2024 turned Sinaloa into one of the country's main hotspots for violence, while the daily average of intentional homicide victims in Mexico fell by 53% between September 2024 and last August, from 86.9 to 40.8, according to the Security Cabinet.
"If we measure from September 2024, arriving at October 1, 2024, to August 2026, the reduction is 53%. (There are) 46 fewer homicides every day," remarked President Claudia Sheinbaum in her press conference this Tuesday, as one of her great achievements after two years in the National Palace.
From the opposition, however, it has been criticized that Sheinbaum's government is "moving the bodies around," in reference to alleged statistical manipulation, in the words of Ricardo Anaya, coordinator in the Senate for the conservative National Action Party (PAN) earlier this month following the president's second-year report.
For Andrés Sumano, a researcher at El Colegio de la Frontera Norte and a security specialist, the decrease does not have a single explanation as it involves a confluence of government action, changes in how violent deaths are recorded, and, especially, the reorganization of crime itself.
“When a criminal monopoly is consolidated, we no longer have that competition factor that naturally causes homicides to decrease,” he explains to EFE.
Less violence to avoid drawing attention
Adding to the internal reconfiguration is pressure from Washington, intensified by demands for results against drug trafficking and, particularly, fentanyl trafficking.
"Before, the cartels believed that by crossing borders they were protected, and by laundering resources they were protected. But today we tell them no, no more,” declared the US Ambassador to Mexico, Ronald Johnson, who attributed the momentum of bilateral cooperation between Sheinbaum and his country's president, Donald Trump.
The arrests, seizures, and operations against criminal structures have forced the groups, according to Sumano, to “try to keep a low profile, not to offer such visible violence precisely to avoid drawing attention.”
From October 2024 until last August, Mexican authorities reported 67,253 arrests for high-impact crimes, the seizure of 34,353 firearms and 534 tons of drugs in ground operations, in addition to the disabling of 2,771 clandestine methamphetamine production laboratories.
Violence, however, continues to hit some territories with particular force. Between January and August 2026, seven states accounted for 49.3% of the country's intentional homicides: Guanajuato (8.5%), Baja California (8.4%), Chihuahua (8%), Sinaloa (7.5%), State of Mexico (6.1%), Guerrero (5.6%), and Morelos (5.3%).
To achieve a lasting reduction in violence, he finally points toward another front: breaking the links of protection and tolerance between authorities and criminal organizations.
“More than a capacity issue, it is a corruption issue, and that is where it must be addressed,” concludes Sumano.
[Publicidad]