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For President Donald Trump, this Tuesday's elections revolve around him. For his fellow Republicans, the risk is that voters agree.
Midterm elections almost always act as a referendum on the president's party, and usually result in losses. But Trump's decisions to impose tariffs, start a war, and oversee extravagant renovations in Washington—largely without consulting Congress—have made it more difficult for Republicans to navigate those historical headwinds.
There is a direct connection between Trump's actions and the rising costs of gasoline and food, as well as persistently high inflation.
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Republicans cannot blame past administrations for the consequences of those decisions when Trump has claimed them so emphatically. Nor can they easily distance themselves from an unpopular president who demands loyalty and frequently tells voters the economy is perfectly fine.
At almost every key moment before the November 3rd voting, Trump has complicated the task of protecting Republican majorities in Congress.
The war with Iran is “making it exponentially harder for Republicans to hold the House and the Senate,” stated Representative Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House, during a debate while signaling his support for the effort.
Trump's late moves to boost the Republican Party may not be enough.
Republicans have had one clear advantage: money.
Trump's political groups spent nearly $277 million to boost Republicans since September, a staggering figure that puts this year on track to become the most expensive legislative election in history.
But it may not be enough to lead the Republican Party to victory.
Trump's taxes on imports altered the agricultural economy and triggered a trade war with Canada, putting Republicans on the defensive in Senate races from Iowa, Michigan, and Kansas to Nebraska, Ohio, and Maine. The war with Iran, which he said would end in weeks, continued eight months later without a clear strategy to conclude it, in marked contrast to his promise not to get involved in Middle East conflicts.
“The actions of this administration are directly responsible for the increase in costs,” declared former Democratic President Barack Obama in Ohio.
Trump has shown little empathy for Americans dealing with rising costs. He has dismissed affordability issues as a “hoax” and said at a Georgia rally that he didn't give a “damn” about criticism regarding gas prices, even while celebrating the profits of U.S. oil and gas companies.
Meanwhile, he has become much wealthier, gaining $1.2 billion from cryptocurrency deals while most investors lost money.
While campaigning with Democrats in competitive House races recently in Virginia, former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg argued that “the corruption we have seen is directly connected to the pain people are feeling economically.”
“You can't separate these things,” noted Buttigieg, a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Some voters are also upset by Trump's priorities, including his lavish transformation of Washington.
A ballroom that Chief Justice John Roberts considered “probably illegal” is rising over the White House, while the Republican administration signals it could begin work on building a triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery later this week. Trump has said he will defy a federal judge and move forward later this month with plans to close a park along the Potomac River that has long served as a backdrop for family picnics, scenic bike rides, and affordable golf, to make way for a “world-class” golf course.
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Midterm elections often defy the president's party.
Historically, midterm elections are difficult for the president's party.
In Trump's last midterm election, in 2018, Democrats gained 40 seats in the lower house, and they gained 31 during Republican George W. Bush's second term in 2006. Republicans, meanwhile, picked up 63 seats in 2010 during the Obama administration, but flipped fewer than 10 in 2022 under Democratic President Joe Biden.
Redistricting has reduced the number of truly competitive House districts, but Trump has added difficulties for the Republican Party by intervening in several Senate races in ways that could ultimately erase their majority. In Texas, outgoing Republican Senator John Cornyn has warned that Trump's pick in this year's primary, State Attorney General Ken Paxton, is weak against Democrat James Talarico, a state legislator.
“Even in places like Texas, which are pretty Republican, we have flawed candidates who I think are going to have a hard time,” Cornyn said in a brief interview.
Trump's low approval rating could weigh on Republicans.
Approximately one-third of U.S. adults approve of how Trump is handling the presidency, according to a poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That is lower than Biden's approval in AP-NORC polls just before the midterm elections, as well as Trump's approval in his first term, which stood around 40% shortly before the midterm voting.
In October 2006, about 37% of U.S. adults approved of Bush's performance, while about 45% approved of Obama's performance just before the 2010 elections, according to Gallup polls. Gallup's presidential approval follow-up question, which the firm stopped using earlier this year, asked the question differently and used a different method than AP-NORC polls, so the findings are not directly comparable.
When their approval ratings fell, previous presidents like Bush and Obama gave members of their party room to take some distance. Trump usually doesn't give that kind of space, leading candidates to take more subtle steps, like removing mentions of the president from their websites.
Democrats have kept up the pressure, spending hundreds of millions on advertising that links Republicans to Trump. A Democratic ad in Michigan, for example, labels Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, as “totally pro-war, totally pro-Trump.”
Representative Ashley Hinson, the Republican Senate candidate in Iowa, is testing how to balance loyalty and independence regarding Trump, who scheduled a rally in the state on Sunday. Hinson said in a debate that she would be an “ally” to Trump “when it matters to Iowa, but I will oppose him.”
A few days later, she toured an ethanol plant in Dyersville, Iowa, alongside Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin. The visit sought to underscore her defense of one of Iowa's most important industries, but she soon faced questions about Trump's controversial agreement with Russia to lower diesel prices.
“Lowering fuel prices in general remains a priority for me,” Hinson stated before adding that “it makes me a little nervous every time we talk about easing a sanction on Russia.”
Democrats also have their own risks.
With all the challenges for the Republican Party, Democrats also face risks. As some in the party become more confident in their expectations, there are warnings about over-interpreting the results.
“Anger against Trump is going to be an emotion that will fade,” Maryland Governor Wes Moore said in an interview. “We have to deliver.”
Senator Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat from Michigan, recently traveled to Hungary to study how voters rejected Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his authoritarian policies. In a speech, she spoke of a “tipping point” when “the public refuses to accept this level of corruption.”
Asked in an interview if the United States is reaching a “tipping point,” she replied that “that is the 100 million dollar question,” and warned that voters were not “falling in love with the Democrats.”
“A midterm election is almost always a signal and a reaction to the party in power,” she explained. “What we do, starting January 1st, if we manage to flip the House of Representatives, is going to be a test for those undecided voters on whether they made a good decision.”
[Publicidad]