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Cold Front number 1 is beginning to approach and enter northern Mexico, where it will interact with the Mexican monsoon and other atmospheric systems to generate strong wind gusts and rain in different regions of the country.
According to the meteorological forecast for the next 48 hours, valid from 08:00 on Wednesday, September 30, to 08:00 on Thursday, October 1, 2026, the approach or possible entry of Cold Front 1, in combination with the Mexican monsoon, a cyclonic circulation at high levels, and an upper-level trough, will cause precipitation in the northwest and north of the national territory.
Added to this scenario is Tropical Cyclone Rachel, located off the coast of Jalisco, whose circulation will favor a period of rain in western Mexico.
Where will there be heavy rains due to Cold Front 1?
During this Wednesday, September 30, very heavy rains with intense downpours of 75 to 150 millimeters are expected in Michoacán, Jalisco, Colima, Guerrero, and San Luis Potosí.
Strong rains with very heavy downpours of 50 to 75 millimeters are also forecast in Zacatecas, Nayarit, the State of Mexico, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo.
In Sinaloa and Durango, rains of 25 to 50 millimeters are expected, while Baja California Sur, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Aguascalientes could record intervals of showers.
Mexico City is also included in the forecast, with showers and heavy downpours of 25 to 50 millimeters.
Cold Front 1 and the Mexican monsoon: which states will have rain?
The interaction of Cold Front number 1 with the Mexican monsoon will favor rain and wind conditions mainly in the north and northwest of the country.
For the following days, the frontal system will continue to move over northern Mexico and, in combination with low-pressure channels, cyclonic circulations, troughs, and upper-level divergence, will maintain the probability of showers and very heavy to intense rains in different regions.
The forecast for Thursday, October 1, contemplates very heavy rains with intense downpours of 75 to 150 millimeters in Durango, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Sinaloa, Jalisco, Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas.
In addition, there will be strong rains with very heavy downpours in Nayarit, Guanajuato, Puebla, Veracruz, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Aguascalientes, and Quintana Roo.
Will it rain in Mexico City due to Cold Front 1?
Mexico City is within the zones with a possibility of rain during this period.
For Thursday, October 1, showers with strong downpours of 25 to 50 millimeters are forecast in the capital, in addition to wind gusts between 30 and 50 km/h.
The State of Mexico will also have precipitation, particularly in the center and north of the entity, as well as rainy conditions in areas of the southwest.
Therefore, although Cold Front 1 is initially concentrated in the north of the country, its effects will combine with other meteorological systems that will favor rain in the Valley of Mexico.
Rachel will maintain intense rains in the west
While Cold Front 1 approaches the north, Rachel will continue to generate rainy conditions in the Mexican Pacific.
For this Wednesday, intense downpours are expected on the coast of Michoacán, southern Jalisco, and Colima, as well as very heavy rains in Nayarit.
Strong wind gusts and high waves are also forecast on the coasts of these states.
For the following days, Rachel will move parallel to the coasts of the central Mexican Pacific, maintaining the possibility of intense rains in Jalisco and very heavy precipitation in Nayarit, Colima, and Michoacán.
Will there be strong wind and high waves?
Yes. Meteorological conditions will also cause strong wind gusts.
On the coasts of Jalisco and Colima, gusts of 70 to 90 km/h are expected, while in Michoacán and Oaxaca they could reach between 50 and 70 km/h.
In Tamaulipas, gusts of up to 60 km/h are forecast.
In addition, waves could reach between 4 and 6 meters on the coasts of Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán, so maritime conditions will be especially relevant in the Pacific.
Will the temperature drop due to Cold Front 1?
Although the cold front is beginning to mark the change in meteorological conditions in the north, hot to very hot weather will continue in much of the northeast, east, and the Yucatán Peninsula.
Maximum temperatures of 35 to 40 °C are expected in entities such as Baja California, Sinaloa, Sonora, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Veracruz, Tabasco, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo.
In contrast, during the early morning, minimum temperatures of 0 to 5 °C could be recorded in mountainous areas of Chihuahua, Durango, the State of Mexico, Oaxaca, Tlaxcala, and Puebla.
Forecast for Mexico from October 1 to 3
During the next three days, Cold Front number 1 will continue to move over northern Mexico, while the Mexican monsoon, low-pressure channels, troughs, and cyclonic circulations will favor rain in other regions.
The forecast contemplates very heavy to intense precipitation in areas of the northwest, north, northeast, center, east, south, and southeast of the country, including the Valley of Mexico.
Therefore, the meteorological outlook for the beginning of October will be marked by the combination of Cold Front 1, the Mexican monsoon, and moisture coming from the Pacific, in addition to the effects associated with Tropical Cyclone Rachel.
The intensity of the rains can cause waterlogging, an increase in the levels of rivers and streams, as well as possible damage in vulnerable areas, so it is recommended to consult the updates from the National Meteorological Service and Civil Protection.
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