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The 2026-2027 cold front season in Mexico will have above-average activity. The National Meteorological Service (SMN) forecasts the entry of 56 frontal systems into Mexican territory between September 2026 and May 2027.
This figure exceeds the climatological average of 50 cold fronts recorded between 1990 and 2020, according to the National Water Commission (Conagua).
The forecast was presented by the Government of Mexico during a conference in which preventive measures for the cold conditions that could occur during the season were also announced.
How many cold fronts will there be in Mexico in 2026-2027?
According to the SMN forecast, the 56 cold fronts will be distributed as follows:
- Septiembre 2026: 3
- Octubre: 7
- Noviembre: 8
- Diciembre: 9
- Enero 2027: 8
- Febrero: 7
- Marzo: 6
- Abril: 6
- Mayo: 2
With these figures, December will be the month with the most forecast cold fronts, with nine systems, followed by November and January, with eight each.
When will the most intense cold arrive in Mexico?
Although the season statistically begins in September, the SMN expects the highest frequency of cold fronts to be concentrated between November 2026 and February 2027.
During those four months, about 32 frontal systems could enter, meaning more than half of the 56 expected for the entire season.
This behavior will be related to the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a phenomenon expected to continue strengthening and reach a very strong El Niño intensity towards the end of 2026.
The phenomenon would favor the movement of air masses towards northern and central Mexico, in addition to increasing the probability of humid conditions in different regions of the country.
Which states could feel the effects of the cold fronts the most?
Frontal systems can cause temperature drops, strong winds, rain, high waves, and 'Norte' events, especially in regions of the north, center, and coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico.
The SMN also warns that some cold air masses from Canada and the United States could interact with abundant humidity during the winter and favor the development of winter storms, mainly in northwestern and northern Mexico.
Therefore, the effects will not be the same throughout the national territory: they will depend on the trajectory of each cold front, the associated air masses, and their interaction with other meteorological systems.
El Niño will also modify rainfall in Mexico
Precipitation patterns could also change during the first months of the season.
For September, the SMN expects El Niño to contribute to keeping rainfall below the climatological average. In October, normal or above-average conditions are expected.
For November, the forecast points to above-average rainfall in regions of north-central and northeastern Mexico, while in December it could be above average in the northwest and below average in the west and south of the country.
Cold fronts and tropical cyclones could interact
The start of the cold front season does not mean that tropical cyclone activity ends immediately.
During the transition between summer and autumn, tropical cyclones can still develop, especially those that approach the Gulf of Mexico.
The SMN explained that cold air masses associated with the fronts can interact with cyclonic systems, causing changes in their trajectories or causing some systems to remain stationary for longer. This can increase or intensify their effects.
What does Civil Protection recommend regarding the cold?
With the arrival of low temperatures, authorities recommend staying informed through official channels and taking preventive measures in homes and heating systems.
Recommendations include:
- Vestir varias capas de ropa.
- Cubrir rostro, cabeza, manos y oídos.
- Consumir alimentos nutritivos y bebidas calientes.
- Cubrir nariz y boca al salir de lugares calientes para evitar cambios bruscos de temperatura.
- Revisar los sistemas de calefacción antes de utilizarlos.
- No utilizar braseros, hornos o estufas para calentar habitaciones.
- No dormir cerca de calentadores.
Civil Protection warned especially about the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning, a toxic gas that can be produced by combustion in closed spaces and which is imperceptible to people.
Where to check the cold front forecast?
The SMN recommends checking meteorological updates and official alerts through Conagua and the National Meteorological Service, as conditions can change as frontal systems approach.
The 2026-2027 season includes 56 cold fronts, but the intensity and effects of each will depend on the atmospheric conditions present at the time of their entry into Mexico.
[Publicidad]