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What would happen if Yellowstone erupted? How catastrophic would it be? These questions were answered by a group of scientists regarding the possibility of the Yellowstone supervolcano erupting in the near future, and according to their findings, there would be millions of immediate deaths.
A hypothetical scenario developed by British scientists describes the consequences a supereruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano could have, ranging from earthquakes and mass evacuations to the collapse of supply chains and a global food crisis.
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The analysis, published by researchers Ilan Kelman of University College London and Matthew Blackett of Coventry University in the scientific journal The Conversation, suggests that in the worst-case scenario, the eruption and its consequences could cause between 700 million and 1.3 billion premature deaths.
Their research presents its results as a hypothesis, not as a prediction or an ongoing event: “What follows is a thought experiment about what could happen in a worst-case scenario,” the experts note. “A supereruption of this magnitude would pose a threat to civilization as we know it,” they add.
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The Yellowstone caldera, located in Yellowstone National Park in the United States, measures approximately 55 kilometers wide and 72 kilometers long and is one of the most studied volcanic formations on the planet.
A supereruption is defined by the expulsion of nearly a thousand kilometers of magma, rock, and ash. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Yellowstone has recorded three major eruptions in the last 2.1 million years; the most recent occurred approximately 631,000 years ago and covered large parts of North America in ash.
In the event that the caldera erupts at some point, it is estimated that the crisis would begin a month before the eruption with the identification of a sudden increase in earthquakes in the area, which would generate an “advisory” alert.
Subsequently, tremors would be recorded more frequently and at shallower depths, while geyser activity would become increasingly irregular.
According to their hypothesis, days after this, there would be more clarity regarding the probability of a catastrophic eruption occurring in the following three weeks, and the alert level would shift to “watch.”
The threat would then force the establishment of a 100-kilometer evacuation zone around Yellowstone, affecting some 200,000 residents. In the proposed scenario, on the day of the eruption, magma would reach the hydrothermal system and trigger explosions of steam, mud, and rock fragments. Hours later, the main eruptive phase would begin, with a gigantic column of volcanic material that, according to the hypothesis model, could rise up to 50 kilometers into the atmosphere.
The consequences would be immediate and devastating, the scientists suggest. Currents of hot gases, ash, and rocks could kill up to 1,000 people within the first few hours, destroy farmland in eight states, and affect energy and water networks.
Between three days and a week later, large regions of North America would be plunged into darkness. In just two weeks, ash would block roads, damage drainage systems, and force the closure of airports, railways, and farms; North America, including Mexico, and numerous countries in the Caribbean and Central America would face states of emergency.
The crisis would not stop there. The scenario would become even more severe over the following months. Four to six months later, respiratory problems would overwhelm hospitals, and the blow to North American agriculture would cause a sharp increase in food prices, in addition to affecting supply chains and the global economy.
The researchers suggest that a banking crisis could lead to a global recession and that, even 10 years later, hunger and migration would remain widespread. Under that extreme scenario, they estimate between 700 million and 1.3 billion premature deaths.
Is the Yellowstone caldera going to erupt?
Despite the scientists' hypothetical scenarios, the Yellowstone supervolcano is not close to an eruption, according to the USGS. Although the three known major eruptions occurred with an average of approximately 725,000 years between events, the agency warns that calculating a future date based on just two intervals “is meaningless.”
An eventual eruption would not necessarily have to reach the magnitude of the one that occurred 631,000 years ago: Yellowstone also recorded a lava flow about 70,000 years ago.
The experts' conclusion is clear: volcanoes do not operate on predictable schedules, so the figures of up to 1.3 billion deaths correspond exclusively to a hypothetical scenario of maximum magnitude and not a warning that a Yellowstone eruption is imminent.
[Publicidad]