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The unexpected reelection of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Flávio Bolsonaro represents a setback for the plans of U.S. President Donald Trump to consolidate his influence in Latin America, at a time when the rightward turn of several countries seemed to be clearing his path.
The progressive leader won with nearly 52% of the vote against the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022) and pulled off an unprecedented comeback: he is the first candidate to win a runoff after finishing second in the first round.
While waiting for Trump to comment on the results, which Flávio has refused to acknowledge, Lula's victory thwarts the possibility of Washington adding the largest Latin American economy to its bloc of regional allies.
The setback for the Republican also comes just over a week before midterm elections, where polls suggest Democrats could strip him of control of Congress.
A limit to regional advancement
In his second term, Trump announced he would revive the Monroe Doctrine, a 19th-century policy invoked to assert U.S. primacy in Latin America.
When he returned to the White House, his regional allies were few, including Javier Milei in Argentina, Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, and Daniel Noboa in Ecuador. Rightward turns in Honduras (Nasry 'Tito' Asfura), Bolivia (Rodrigo Paz), Chile (José Antonio Kast), Peru (Keiko Fujimori), and Colombia (Abelardo de la Espriella) expanded that bloc, and Trump has boasted of having contributed to those victories.
Added to that advancement is the forced alignment of Venezuela under the government of acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez, following the capture of Nicolás Maduro.
The core of his regional policy is the Shield of the Americas, an anti-drug trafficking alliance that Flávio had promised to join.
Washington also seeks to counter China's growing influence in the region, though a Flávio victory would have been unlikely to alter Brazil's economic ties with the Asian giant, given the weight of the agribusiness sector in the Bolsonarist coalition and its dependence on the Chinese market.
Lula's continuity maintains Brazil as the main counterweight to Trump's regional project, along with Claudia Sheinbaum's Mexico, whose term will end in 2030, by which time the Republican will no longer be in the White House.
Calculated caution
Despite what was at stake in Brazil, Trump avoided explicitly supporting Flávio Bolsonaro, unlike what happened in Colombia, where he openly backed De la Espriella. His presence, however, was felt, and the Lula campaign denounced interference from Washington.
Lula himself stated in his victory speech that the result shows that in Brazil "we do not accept being anyone's backyard."
A Flávio victory would have meant "100 percent alignment with Trump on his culture war and security policy," explains Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin American Program at the Stimson Center, to EFE.
The Republican was "clearly enthusiastic about this possibility," but explicit backing could have "hurt" the candidate, the expert adds.
Trump, however, had already positioned himself with actions. Last year, his administration imposed high tariffs on Brazil in response to the trial against Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to prison for an attempted coup d'état against Lula in 2023.
Last May, he received senator and then-presidential hopeful Flávio Bolsonaro in the Oval Office, an unusual gesture since he was not a head of state.
Flávio asked him to designate the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and the Comando Vermelho as terrorists, and Washington agreed days later—a decision the Lula government opposed for fear that the measure would open the door to U.S. interventionism.
Washington also opened a trade investigation against Brazil for alleged unfair practices, revoked the Brazilian ambassador's visa, and suspended consular services two days before the first round—in which Bolsonaro beat Lula—citing security reasons.
That involvement also exposes Washington to the region's political shifts. For Oliver Stuenkel, a researcher at the Carnegie Center, ideological alliances are a fragile bet in a scenario marked by frequent alternations in power.
"The type of ideological interventionism that the Trump administration is carrying out in the region is counterproductive. In the medium and long term, it will strengthen anti-American forces," he explains to EFE.
Lula's reelection thus forces Washington to deal with a Brazil that does not share its agenda and highlights the limits of its strategy for Latin America.
[Publicidad]