Super El Niño: The apocalyptic map warning of more than 850,000 deaths from extreme heat

Amidst the concern generated by the climatic effects of the Super El Niño for the remainder of 2026 and until the spring of 2027, a map has emerged showing which regions of the world would face the most deaths and chaos due to the anomaly.

The Climate Impact Lab document, called the El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker, shows where the phenomenon will cause the most deaths related to the extreme heat it will bring in the coming months.

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Forecasts indicate that the highest number of deaths will occur in Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Mali, Chad, Mozambique, India, southern China, Indonesia, Thailand, and California in the United States between October 2026 and March 2027. In total, the death toll related to heat is expected to exceed 850,000, according to data from the Climate Impact Lab.

A month ago, the Climate Impact Lab issued research warning about the number of deaths expected worldwide due to climate changes caused by the Super El Niño.

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According to their projection, there would be at least 451,000 deaths by next February, but the amount has increased due to consequences of extreme heat such as droughts, forest fires, and floods, and it is expected to be updated in a new report.

The study highlights that deaths linked to the effects of El Niño will also occur due to disruptions in food supply, such as acute hunger and rising prices, as well as water scarcity.

Nigeria will be the country most affected with 56,000 victims during said period; in India, up to 55,200 deaths would be recorded, 29,300 in Indonesia, 19,500 in Brazil, and 14,700 in Sudan.

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The team of scientists at the Climate Impact Lab, led by expert Michael Greenstone, explains that the phenomenon is warming the planet 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal from the Pacific, which makes it “a postcard of our future,” which will bring a climate crisis in 20 years.

Co-author of the research, Dr. Tamma Carleton, points out that the effects of El Niño can be prevented and “many lives can be saved this year,” but in 20 years, extreme temperatures will be the new normal, with constant states of emergency: “We need to mobilize now to design, implement, and evaluate the tools that will save lives in the years to come,” she notes.

“Short-term mortality projections give us an idea of where we are headed if new investments in adaptation do not materialize. The difference with climate change is that there is more time to undertake adaptations that save lives,” the report adds.

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