Who won in Texas? Latinos make history in midterm elections; breaking more than 30 years of Republican tradition

Past midnight, Austin, the capital of Texas, was still partying. In front of the Capitol, the seat of state government, about fifty people danced to Bad Bunny songs, cheered every time a car drove by honking its horn, and waved a flag with the colors of LGBTQ pride.

Democrats achieved a historic victory in the state this Tuesday: they elected James Talarico, the first senator from their party since 1988, and Gina Hinojosa, the first Latina governor, in a position controlled by Republicans since 1994.

Furthermore, they won the five most closely contested races for the House of Representatives, all in South Texas. This is how they won back voters from this majority-Hispanic region, who in 2024 broke with decades of Democratic tradition and leaned toward Donald Trump.

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"I never thought this would happen," 21-year-old student Darren Tee told EFE. "It feels surreal, as if we were in a parallel reality."

The result comes in the midst of a historic Democratic wave across the country. The opposition regained the majority in both houses of Congress, a blow to the Trump administration in midterm elections that served as a barometer of his management.

Trump, the great burden

Mark Jones, a professor of Political Science at Rice University in Houston, attributed the turnabout to the "extreme unpopularity" of Trump, which "eroded the natural cushion that Texas Republicans enjoyed for decades."

According to The New York Times' polling aggregator, 61% of Americans disapprove of the president's job performance. It is the worst rating with which a president has arrived at midterm elections since Harry Truman (1945-1953).

Contributing to the discontent was the opposition to the war against Iran and economic malaise, aggravated by the rise in gasoline and diesel prices resulting from the conflict.

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Immigration policy also weighed in. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) stepped up its operations in Texas this summer, marked by episodes of violence. In July, an agent killed Lorenzo Salgado in Houston, and in September, another wounded Venezuelan migrant Wilber Garcés with a gunshot to the back in Austin.

A survey by the firm ReconMR from early October found that 56% of Texas voters believe that ICE tactics "have gone too far."

"The people rose up and sent a clear message to Washington: any politician who dares to mess with Hispanics better be prepared to lose," stated Benny Meléndez, an executive at the South Texas Builders Association.

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Paxton and the "perfect storm"

Added to all of this was the fact that Republican voters chose, with Trump's endorsement in the primaries, the state attorney general, Ken Paxton, who carries a long history of corruption allegations and scandals.

For Jones, Paxton is "the most flawed Republican candidate to run for major statewide office in the modern era." To that was added the unpopularity of Trump and the momentum of Talarico, a "good, not excellent" candidate who managed to raise large sums due to Texas's key role in the battle for the Senate.

According to the analyst, this "created a perfect storm."

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South Texas turns around

According to the Texas Tribune, with 85% of the votes counted, the counties with the largest Hispanic populations were those that shifted the most to the left. Talarico swept Hidalgo, Starr, Zapata, and Cameron with more than 60% of the support. Trump won them all in 2024.

The turnabout also dismantled the redistricting that Republicans approved in 2025 to try to retain the majority.

Henry Cuellar retained District 28 with 65.8% of the vote against Tano Tijerina, and Vicente Gonzalez kept District 34 with 55.6% against Eric Flores.

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In District 15, singer Bobby Pulido, winner of two Latin Grammys, defeated Republican Monica De la Cruz with 62.3%. Katy Padilla Stout won District 23 (52%) and Johnny Garcia, District 35 (55.4%).

"South Texas is moving away from what we won in 2024 because of the way we approach immigration," lamented Artemio Muñiz, a Republican lawyer and strategist. "The party has to address immigration positively and with a reasonable solution. If not, we are going to lose this vote," he added.

Losing the governorship, in addition to the Senate, represents for Jones "a political earthquake" capable of changing the status quo in Texas over the next four years.

For Republicans, the fear goes further and stands as a shadow over the next presidential election: it is very difficult to imagine a presidential victory for the conservatives without Texas's 40 electoral votes.

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